Every retailer's experience shows that, in all areas of the supply chain, there is a huge gap between expected consumer behaviour and actual consumer demand. Into this chasm falls literally hundreds of millions of pounds in lost revenues and wasted expenditure. So why are the forecasts so inaccurate?
Redefining consumer influences
Industry-standard prediction techniques
dictate that the purchase decision is a rational response to the core drivers
of Product, Price, Promotion and Event, with weather adding a more random
factor to the equation. We now know that this assumption is wrong.
Initially our findings - based on six years of research - demonstrate a strong relationship between sales and weather. So far nothing new.
Our real breakthrough was when we began to correlate cleaned
historic sales and footfall data with a combination of weather conditions. We were
very interested to discover why this combination had the strongest relationship
9 out of 10 times.
A new way of thinking
Our research on hundreds of products and footfalls
matched with weather data on corresponding days have given correlations greater than +/-0.90, in a field where greater +/-0.50 is considered impressive.
How have we achieved such impressive results? The answer lies in our discovery
that the weather influences decision-making on a sub-conscious level, not
as a rational response. We then developed an index that models these subconscious
drivers, that when overlaid on existing sales data, could explain almost
every peak and trough in demand.
This index we call the 
, and lies at the heart of the Naxis system.
We now know that weather is THE core driver of consumer
behaviour, influenced by, rather than an influence on, the principle
effects of price, promotion and event.
Accepting that the weather effect is subconscious demands a completely new understanding of what makes people tick. If most decisions are subconscious, how can people possibly explain these decisions? When asked by consumer researchers, they will look for a rational explanation such as price promotion or event, to account for their choice.
Harnessing the understanding
Put simply, the NAXIS System enables us to
accurately measure and therefore predict the consumer subconscious decision-making
process by tapping in to all our cleaned historic sales/footfall data,
accurate weather data and psychological factors. It is this unique and
powerful metodology, process and analytical technique that gives the Naxis
system its industry-altering potential.
At last, accurate prediction of human behaviour is available. The reality
is here.
The Naxis System -
converting
consumer behaviour into consumer demand
